A baseball rule change thought experiment
Pop flies are outs when caught, regardless of where the runner is.
Batter is safe if they touch first base before the ball lands OR is caught.
We did the math. The results are wild.
Every pop fly becomes a race between the batter sprinting to first and the ball falling back to earth.
✓ Even the SLOWEST MLB player beats nearly ALL pop flies to first base
Enter your home-to-first time to see what happens
Based on 65,418 fly balls tracked by Inside Edge in 2013
57.6% of fly balls have hang times over 4.0 seconds — longer than the MLB average sprint time.
35% of fly balls hang for 5+ seconds, meaning EVERY MLB player would beat them to first.
Each pop fly that becomes a single is worth +0.74 runs (swing from -0.27 out to +0.47 single). With ~4-5 affected fly balls per team per game, that's 3+ extra runs per team.
In 1895, baseball introduced the infield fly rule to PREVENT a defensive exploit. Our proposed rule would completely reverse the incentive structure.
Shortstops were intentionally DROPPING pop flies to turn double plays. Rule made batter automatically out.
Defense WANTS to catch the ball. Dropping it lets runners advance.
Defense should let the ball DROP to get the out faster. The infield fly rule becomes pointless!
Joey Gallo types go from pop-up kings to single machines
Billy Hamilton could hit .400+ just on beating out pops
Previously a weakness, now a neutral or positive trait
A skill becomes a liability overnight
Pop fly range becomes worthless
Foul pop catching is devalued
An "aggressive single + run." With runner on 3rd, batter intentionally hits pop fly. Run scores AND batter is safe!
Fielder catches at 3.8s, batter 5 feet from first. Can the throw beat him? A whole new defensive skill emerges!
First baseman trying to catch a pop near the bag while batter sprints to touch it. Who has right of way?
Does the rule apply to foul pop-ups? If so, batters could intentionally hit high foul pops for "free" bases!
This rule change wouldn't just tweak baseball — it would fundamentally break it.
By eliminating an entire category of outs, the game's delicate balance between offense and defense would collapse. Scoring would spike, games would drag on, and half of defensive statistics would become meaningless.
A thought experiment by the Baseball What-If Research Department
Data sources: FanGraphs, Baseball Savant, Inside Edge, SABR